Why Term Limits are a Game Changer for Elections

In partnership with BrandTruth*, a non-partisan research firm, we conducted a survey of key congressional districts to test just how powerful of an issue term limits is for voters. The results were astonishing.

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In partnership with BrandTruth*, a non-partisan research firm, we interviewed 2,178 eligible voters in Washington’s 5th District three weeks before the November 2018 Congressional election.

Washington State - 5th Congressional District

The incumbent was Cathy Rogers and the challenger was Lisa Brown.

We wanted to find out how much a Term Limit Pledge could influence a general election. The results are game-changing!

We asked the voters, who intended to vote for the incumbent (and undecided voters), if they would vote for the challenger if she had signed a Term Limit Pledge.

A signed Term Limit Pledge would have caused a voter swing of 7% in the general election, enough to give the election to the challenger.

The pie graph below illustrates this swing:

Survey Results

a. Without the Term Limit Pledge – If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

  • Cathy McMorris Rodgers = 51.7% = 1,123 of 2,178 total voters interviewed
  • Lisa Brown = 42.3% = 921 of 2,178 total voters interviewed
  • Undecided = 6.2% = 134 of 2,311 total voters

b. If the major party challenger signed the Term Limit Pledge – Who would you vote for?

  • Cathy McMorris Rodgers = 46.8% = 1,019 of 2,178 total voters interviewed
  • Lisa Brown = 49.3% = 1,074 of 2,178 total voters interviewed
  • Undecided = 3.9% = 85 of 2,178 total voters

Washington State - 8th Congressional District

In partnership with BrandTruth*, a non-partisan research firm, we interviewed 2,311 eligible voters in Washington’s 8th District six weeks before the November 2018 Congressional election.

Kim Schrier (D) and Dino Rossi (R) were running against each other for the vacant seat left by retiring incumbent David Reichert (R) who won re-election in 2016 by 20%.

We wanted to find out how much a Term Limit Pledge could influence a general election. Once again, the results are game-changing!  

We asked 2,311 voters, who intended to vote for the one candidate (and undecided voters), if they would vote for the other candidate if she/he had signed a Term Limit Pledge.  Astonishingly, the Term Limit Pledge would have secured the election for either one of the candidates.

A signed Term Limit Pledge by Kim Schrier would have captured an additional +7.8% of the vote (made up of both “undecided” voters and voters who planned to vote for Dino Rossi).  

A signed Term Limit Pledge by Dino Rossi would have captured an additional +6.4% of the vote (made up of both “undecided” voters and voters who planned to vote for Kim Schrier).

Survey Results

a. Without The Term Limit Pledge – Who would you vote for if the election were held today (Sept 15 – Oct 1st 2018)?

  • Kim Schrier = 49.2% = 1,135 of 2,311 total voters interviewed
  • Dino Rossi = 46.3% = 1,072 of 2,311 total voters interviewed
  • Undecided = 4.5% = 104 of 2,311 total voters

b. Who would you vote for if Dino Rossi signed the Term Limit Pledge? Dino Rossi would have captured an additional +6.4% of the vote (made up of both “undecided” voters and voters who planned to vote for Kim Schrier).

  • Dino Rossi = 52.8% = 1,221 of 2,311 total voters interviewed
  • Kim Schrier = 45.5% = 1,052 of 2,311 total voters interviewed
  • Undecided = 1.6% = 38 of 2,311 total voters

c. Who would you vote for if Kim Schrier signed the Term Limit Pledge? Kim Schrier would have captured an additional +7.8% of the vote (made up of both “undecided” voters and voters who planned to vote for Dino Rossi).

  • Kim Schrier = 57.0% = 1,316 of 2,311 total voters interviewed
  • Dino Rossi = 41.2% = 952 of 2,311 total voters interviewed
  • Undecided = 1.9% = 43 of 2,311 total voters

Washington State - U.S. Senate

In partnership with BrandTruth*, a non-partisan research firm, we interviewed 3,481 eligible voters in Washington State 4 weeks before the November 2018 U.S. Senate election.

The incumbent was Maria Cantwell and the challenger was Susan Hutchison.

We wanted to find out how much a Term Limit Pledge could influence a general election. The results, once again, are game-changing!

We asked the voters, who intended to vote for the incumbent (and undecided voters), if they would vote for the challenger if she had signed a Term Limit Pledge.

A signed Term Limit Pledge would have caused a voter swing of 8.4% in the general election to the challenger, moving the election to “a toss up” status.

The pie graph below illustrates this swing.

Survey Results

a. Without The Term Limit Pledge – Who would you vote for if the election were held today (Sept 15 – Oct 15th 2018)?

  • Maria Cantwell = 53.6% = 1,865 of 3,481 total voters interviewed
  • Susan Hutchison = 38.1% = 1,327 of 3,481 total voters interviewed
  • Undecided (or other) = 8.3% = 289 of 3,481 total voters interviewed

b. If the major party challenger signed the Term Limit Pledge – Who would you vote for if the election were held today (Sept 15 – Oct 15th 2018)?

  • Maria Cantwell = 49.9% = 1,736 of 3,481 total voters interviewed
  • Susan Hutchison = 46.5% = 1,619 of 3,481 total voters interviewed
  • Undecided (or other) = 3.6% = 126 of 3,481 total voters interviewed

* BrandTruth has done their unique "natural elicitation" research for 18+ years for the leadership teams of Fortune 500 brands: Nike, Apple, Coca-Cola, HP, Nintendo, The North Face, Columbia Sportswear, Hallmark, and other major consumer brands. BrandTruth is a group of dedicated branding and marketplace veterans who use their extensive experiences in helping major brands connect with consumers and optimize ROI on go-to-market investments.